2013 NFL Draft Prospect Odds for Each Philadelphia Eagles Selection
by Jerome's Friend
Originally published April 30, 2013 on Section215.com.
Instead of mocking the draft, let’s simulate it. Previously, I’ve written how principles of a chaos theory-influenced draft simulation can illustrate just how impossible it is to predict what will happen in the NFL Draft. Each selection in the draft is dependent on the ones that come before it, so changing any of the previous selections can radically alter any one team’s particular pick at the moment, or in the future. By many accounts, the Philadelphia Eagles seem likely to draft an offensive tackle in the first round, but exactly how likely?
The simulation model was run 1,000 times and we can glean from it the percent chance any one prospect will be drafted at any position in the draft. The model itself is based on one big board (ideally I would like to use 32 different ones, but maybe next year), and a random decision to draft based on need or best player available. Once that decision is determined, which team need and which best player available is also determined randomly (within reason), in order to account for value and reaches. Envision this simulation as a statistical draft performed within a vacuum, with no trades. Read more…