Value-Scoring the 2013 NFL Draft

by Jerome's Friend

Originally published April 30, 2013 on

The three day NFL Draft event is complete and many analysts have already submitted grades for teams as well as individual selections.  Admittedly, it’s a bit unfair to judge a team’s draft and their respective selections so early, before players have a chance to prove their worth on an NFL football field.   Instead, it may be better to grade the draft based on relative value (although, perhaps no less ambiguous).

Earlier, I created a draft model based on chaos theory principles and ran the simulation 1,000 times.  One of the byproducts of that simulation was an average draft position (ADP) for each player.  My goal was to use these ADPs as a basis for my value determination, but in order to do so I first needed to test whether my ADPs were relevant.  That is, did ADP relate any better to actual draft results than an analyst’s mock draft?  For a comparison, I chose Mike Mayock (I wanted to also use Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft but I’m not an ESPN Insider and couldn’t find it anywhere).  Read more…